Oscar Predictions: Best Original Song

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs), All the Stars (Black Panther), The Place Where Lost Things Go (Mary Poppins Returns), I’ll Fight (RBG), Shallow (A Star is Born)

This year’s locks: I’m Gonna Love Me Again (Rocketman), Into the Unknown (Frozen II)

Very likely: Stand Up (Harriet)

Possible: Spirit (The Lion King), Glasgow (Wild Rose), Never Too Late (The Lion King), I’m Standing with You (Breakthrough), Speechless (Aladdin), High Above the Water (Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am), Letter to My Godfather (The Black Godfather), Daily Battles (Motherless Brooklyn)

Unlikely: Soju One Glass (Parasite), Da Bronx (The Bronx USA), I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away (Toy Story 4), Catchy Song (The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part)

The rundown: For the second year, the contenders in this category have been winnowed down to just fifteen finalists. I’ve been listening to all of them every time I drive anywhere, and I’ve embedded a YouTube clip of each below for your listening pleasure! For the second year in a row, I’m predicting that the four Globe-nominated films that placed on this finalist list will make the cut (not that it worked out so well for me last year). That starts with Globe winner I’m Gonna Love Me Again (Rocketman) and nominees Into the Unknown (Frozen II) and Stand Up (Harriet). After that, I’m not so sure, but I’m predicting that Spirit (The Lion King) eclipses other popular choices like Never Too Late (The Lion King), I’m Standing with You (Breakthrough), and Speechless (Aladdin). Other possibilities include High Above the Water (Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am, Letter to My Godfather (The Black Godfather), and Daily Battles (Motherless Brooklyn). Though it’s going to do well in other categories, I don’t think Soju One Glass (Parasite) has much of a chance, and though it was memorable when I watched it performed in the opening minutes of HBO’s documentary, Da Bronx (The Bronx USA) probably doesn’t have much of a shot both because it’s irreverent and because it’s not available anywhere (and not embedded below as a result). Maybe they have their fans, but I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away (Toy Story 4) and Catchy Song (The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part) don’t seem like they can really show up here, even if the previous films in the series have resulted in nominations. I’m betting on Glasgow (Wild Rose) to earn the fifth spot instead. Regarding “The Lion King,” one film earning two nominations isn’t too rare, last occurring three years ago, and five films even managed three nominations apiece in the 1990s and 2000s. Finalists are embedded below in the order of alphabetical order by film – listen for yourself!

Forecasted winner: I say I’m Gonna Love Me Again repeats after the Globes.