Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, If Beale Street Could Talk, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns

My choices: Coming next week!

This year’s locks: Joker

Very likely: Little Women, 1917

Possible: Ford v Ferrari, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit, Motherless Brooklyn, Avengers: Endgame, Pain and Glory

Unlikely: The Farewell, Us, Bombshell, The King, Frozen II

The rundown: For the second year in a row, the contenders in this category have been winnowed down to just fifteen finalists. I’ve been listening to these scores nonstop for the past few weeks, and what I’ve done below is to include one highlighted track from each prospective nominee along with my commentary, ranked in alphabetical order. For the second year in a row, all five Globe nominees are eligible, though the list hasn’t matched up since 1962 (when there were two separate Oscar categories), and last year’s winner, “First Man,” wasn’t even nominated. That shouldn’t happen this year, as Joker is a sure bet, and both Little Women and 1917 should show up too. I’m predicting that Globe nominees Marriage Story and Motherless Brooklyn both just miss, with Ford v Ferrari showing up instead and John Williams returning for the third sequel, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, even if there may not be that much original material involved. Jojo Rabbit and Avengers: Endgame seem possible, while Pain and Glory and The Farewell will surely have their fans. I don’t see Us or Bombshell making the list, while The King and Frozen II seem like extreme longshots at best. Have a listen for yourself below – this is a good crop!


Avengers: Endgame was composed by Alan Silvestri, who was nominated for his song from “The Polar Express” in 2004 and his score from “Forrest Gump” in 1994. He made the shortlist last year for “Avengers: Infinity War.” In terms of superhero movies, “Black Panther” won this award last year, but that’s about it.


Bombshell was composed by Theodore Shapiro, who would earn his first Oscar nomination this year. He earned an Emmy bid in 2012 for the TV movie “Game Change” and contends at the Annie Awards this year for “Spies in Disguise.”


The Farewell was composed by Alex Weston, who would earn his first Oscar nomination this year. This is his fifth feature film score.


Ford v Ferrari was composed by Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, who were previously nominated together for “The Hurt Locker” in 2009. Beltrami also contended in 2007 for “3:10 to Yuma.” This film’s score tied to take home the Hollywood Music in Media Award.


Frozen II was composed by Christophe Beck, who would earn his first Oscar nomination this year. He won an Emmy in 1998 for “Buffy the Vampire Slayer.” This film’s score was nominated for a Hollywood Music in Media Award and an Annie Award.


Jojo Rabbit was composed by Michael Giacchino, who won an Oscar in 2009 for “Up” and was also nominated in 2007 for “Ratatouille.” He was nominated for a BAFTA, and a Hollywood Music in Media Award for this film and for “Spider-Man: Far From Home.”


Joker was composed by Hildur Guðnadóttir, who won an Emmy earlier this year for the limited series “Chernobyl.” She won the Golden Globe, has been nominated for a BAFTA and a Critics Choice Award, and tied to take home a Hollywood Music in Media Award.


The King was composed by Nicholas Britell, a nominee in this category last year for “If Beale Street Could Talk” and three years ago for “Moonlight.” He was nominated for a Hollywood Music in Media Award for this film and won an Emmy earlier this year for the “Succession” main title theme.


Little Women was composed by Alexandre Desplat, who has been nominated ten times in the past thirteen years, winning in 2014 for “The Grand Budapest Hotel” and in 2017 for “The Shape of Water.” This score has been nominated for a Golden Globe, a BAFTA and a Critics Choice Award, a Hollywood Music in Media Award, and a handful of critics’ prizes, some of which it won.


Marriage Story was composed by Randy Newman, who has twenty previous Oscar nominations, including seven for scores, and two wins, for songs from “Monsters, Inc.” in 2001 and “Toy Story 3” in 2010. This score has been nominated for a Golden Globe, a Critics Choice Award, a Hollywood Music in Media Award, and a handful of critics’ prizes.


Motherless Brooklyn was composed by Daniel Pemberton, who would earn his first Oscar nomination this year. He was nominated for a Globe for this score, his third nomination there, and a Hollywood Music in Media Award.


1917 was composed by Thomas Newman, who has an impressive fourteen previous nominations but has yet to win. This score has been nominated for a Golden Globe, a BAFTA and a Critics Choice Award, and a handful of critics’ prizes, some of which it has won.


Pain and Glory was composed by Alberto Iglesias, who has three previous nominations, for “The Constant Gardener” in 2005, “The Kite Runner” in 2007, and “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” in 2011. Iglesias took home a prize for Best Composer at the Cannes Film Festival for this score, and has also been cited by several international and Spanish organizations, in addition to contending for a Hollywood Music in Media Award.


Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was composed by John Williams, who holds the title of most-nominated living person with fifty-one previous bids. He has five wins, most recently for “Schindler’s List” in 1993. He won for the first “Star Wars” film and was nominated for the other two original films and the first two sequels earlier this decade. This score has attracted a nomination from one critics’ group so far and from BAFTA.


Us was composed by Michael Abels, who would earn his first Oscar nomination this year. He has won a handful of critics’ prizes and a Hollywood Music in Media Award, in addition to contending for a Critics Choice Award.

Forecasted winner: I see Joker winning this.