Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama

The competition:
The Irishman is directed by Martin Scorsese, marking his twenty-fifth feature film. The film is nominated for directing, its screenplay, and for performances from stars Al Pacino and Joe Pesci.

Joker is directed by Todd Phillips, marking his tenth film. It also contends for directing, score, and for star Joaquin Phoenix’s performance.

Marriage Story is directed by Noah Baumbach, marking his thirteenth film. It is the nominations leader, with bids for its screenplay, score, and performances from stars Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and Laura Dern.

1917 is directed by Sam Mendes, marking this eighth film. It also contends for directing and score.

The Two Popes is directed by Fernando Meirelles, marking his fourth solo feature film. It also contends for its screenplay and for performances from stars Jonathan Pryce and Anthony Hopkins.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture only four times in the past fifteen years, and only three times in the entire history of the Globes, most recently in 1963, has the winner been snubbed altogether at the Oscars. “The Irishman” is the only film here nominated for its ensemble at the SAG Awards.
What should win? I liked all of these films. I actually think “Joker” is the strongest of this bunch, though “Marriage Story” and “1917” are great choices too.
What will win? I think Marriage Story will win, though it could just as easily be “The Irishman” or “1917.”