Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Foreign Language Film

The competition:
The Farewell (USA) is directed by Lulu Wang, marking her second feature film and first Golden Globe nomination. This is the fifth time that a film cited as being only from the USA has been nominated. None of them have won, though “Letters from Iwo Jima” and “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” billed as being from the USA and another country, did prevail in 2006 and 2007. This film is also nominated for Awkwafina’s lead performance.

Les Miserables (France) is directed by Ladj Ly, marking his feature film debut. As best as I can tell, France has been nominated a whopping eighty times and has been credited with twelve wins. This film is on the Oscar shortlist as France’s submission for Best International Feature.

Pain and Glory (Spain) is directed by Pedro Almodovar, marking his twenty-first film. Seven of his films have been nominated in this category before, with two wins, for “All About My Mother” in 1999 and “Talk to Her” in 2002. Star Antonio Banderas is nominated for his performance. This film is on the Oscar shortlist as Spain’s submission for Best International Feature.

Parasite (South Korea) is directed by Bong Joon Ho, marking his seventh film. He is also nominated for Best Director and Best Screenplay. This film is on the Oscar shortlist as South Korea’s submission for Best International Feature.

Portrait of a Lady on Fire (France) is directed by Céline Sciamma, marking her fourth film. This is her first Golden Globe nomination. As best as I can tell, France has been nominated a whopping eighty times and has been credited with twelve wins. This film was not submitted by France as its official Oscar submission.

Additional notes: All three Oscar-eligible films are on the shortlist for the Oscar Best International Feature category. Last year’s “Roma” was nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture, while the previous two winners of this award, “In the Fade” and “Elle,” weren’t even nominated for Best Foreign Film. Only seven winners in this category have gone on to win the corresponding Oscar in the past fifteen years. Every time a film nominated here has also contended for Best Director, it’s taken home this prize, most recently with “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,” “Letters from Iwo Jima,” “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” and “Roma.”
What should win? I like all of these films a lot and would be happy to see them win. “Parasite” is my favorite, but any of these would be great as winners.
What will win? I would be shocked, as would anyone else, if anything other than Parasite won.