Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced shortly, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

It looks like there are just two locks in this category - Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) and Adam Driver (Marriage Story). It would be hard to imagine Robert De Niro (The Irishman) missing the cut, but it’s possible voters won’t love the film (though I really doubt it). Next up are a handful of contenders, including Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari), and Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes). I think it’s likely that, even if he doesn’t make it all the way to Oscar, Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), a past honoree in other categories, will be nominated here. Adam Driver (The Report) could find himself with a double nomination, and Mark Ruffalo (Dark Waters) is also a possibility. Other late-breaking contenders with buzz include Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) and George MacKay (1917). I’d love to see Noah Jupe (Honey Boy), but I don’t think he can muster enough support to show up in this category.

Current predictions:
Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)