Monday Oscar Odds

If you’ve been visiting MoviesWithAbe.com recently, you’ve likely noticed that Emmy season is over and, while fall TV pilots continue to premiere, it’s time to start thinking about the Oscars. I’ve been watching and reviewing tons of movies that look like top contenders, and I already have more than fifteen screenings on the calendar for November. I’m still missing a lot of the big movies, but I’m getting there, and I’m now starting to pay close attention as I offer my first official predictions.

The only real precursor that we have to work with already is the Gotham Awards, which announced their independent film nominations last week. Last year, none of their Best Picture picks ended up earning a corresponding Oscar nod, and “If Beale Street Could Talk” got a huge boost that didn’t pan out at all come Oscar time (though it did win the top Independent Spirit Award). I’ve seen just one of the nominees this year – “The Farewell” – which I hope will end up going the distance, especially for star Awkwafina. My favorite film of the year, “The Last Black Man in San Francisco,” didn’t show up in the top category but netted a few nominations, and I’m also thrilled for Aldis Hodge, who I’m hoping will manage a Best Supporting Actor bid for “Clemency” but doubt can. The other Best Feature nominees were “Hustlers,” which has done very well, and three films I’m very much looking forward to seeing in the next month or so: “Marriage Story,” “Uncut Gems,” and “Waves.”

Documentary awards groups have also been announcing a lot over the past week or two. The list I’m paying most attention to is DOC NYC’s Shortlist, which cites fifteen features which usually end up populating a good portion of the Oscar list of fifteen films that will be unveiled in mid-December. I’m trying to screen as many of these as I can this week in advance of DOC NYC, so look out for those reviews and changing predictions as a result. The rest is all guesswork – please comment with what you’ve seen and what you’re rooting for!

Best Picture
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Director
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

Best Actor
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Best Actress
Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Alda (Marriage Story)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood )
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Best Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Waves

Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Klaus
Toy Story 4
Weathering with You

Best Documentary
American Factory
Apollo 11
Ask Dr. Ruth
The Biggest Little Farm
Honeyland

Best International Feature
Les Miserables (France)
Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)