Your Guide to the Oscars

Last year, I managed to see every single film nominated in every category for the first time. This year, I did it again, only missing all fifteen shorts and two of the features when nominations were announced and then waiting until just last week to start catching up on those last seventeen films. I’m ready but I also feel like there’s a certain level of predictability going into tonight that means that any winner won’t be all that thrilling. There’s no one nominee that I feel like I’m really rooting for, and no underdog either, though I do hope that “If Beale Street Could Talk” gets something.

The last three years have produced far-from-guaranteed Best Picture winners, and this year feels a bit like last year in that “Roma” is far enough ahead of the pack but with enough doubt around its chances due to historical statistics that its victory isn’t assured. I feel like the Best Supporting Actress category could be a turning point of sorts. Regina King is the expected winner but, thanks to some snubs from other organizations, she’s not a lock. If Rachel Weisz wins, watch out for “The Favouriterite” to dominate. If Marina de Tavira wins with absolutely no precursor support, it’s going to be all about “Roma.” And then Olivia Colman, fresh off a BAFTA win, could feasibly dethrone Glenn Close too for Best Actress, though Yalitza Aparicio triumphing there for her first film role would be a true shock.

Even though it’s probably my fifth or sixth favorite among the Best Picture nominees, I’d be fine with “A Star is Born” surprising to win the top award everyone thought it might win long ago. I’d be much more excited by an upset victory by “Black Panther,” a movie that I feel most can easily support and definitely surpassed its genre expectations.

I’ve detailed the nominees and their chances in each of the categories below, with my prediction bolded, and you can click on each race heading to read my full Oscar winner predictions. Click on film titles for full reviews of each. Happy watching!

Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Best Director
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Adam McKay (Vice)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born

Best Cinematography
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star is Born

Best Art Direction
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

Best Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary, Queen of Scots

Best Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

Best Original Score
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Best Original Song
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
“All the Stars” (Black Panther)
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Mary Poppins Returns)
“I’ll Fight” (RBG)
“Shallow” (A Star is Born)

Best Sound
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born

Best Sound Editing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary Short Film
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
Period. End of Sentence.
A Night at the Garden

Best Animated Short Film
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

Best Live Action Short Film
Detainment
Fauve
Madre
Marguerite
Skin

Best Documentary
Free Solo
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Best Foreign Language Film
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters