Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Song

The competition: “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (David Rawlings and Gillian Welch), “All the Stars” – Black Panther (Kendrick Lamar, Sounwave, Anthony Tiffith, and SZA), “The Place Where Lost Things Go” – Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman), “I’ll Fight” – RBG (Diane Warren), “Shallow” – A Star is Born (Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt)

Previous winners: Remember Me (Coco), City of Stars (La La Land), Writing’s on the Wall (Spectre), Glory (Selma), Let It Go (Frozen), Skyfall (Skyfall), Man or Muppet (The Muppets)
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Gaga and Warren were nominated together in 2015 for their song from “The Hunting Ground.” Warren has eight additional nominations, including one last year for her song from “Marshall.” Shaiman has two previous nominations in this category for songs from “Sleepless in Seattle” in 1993 and “South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut” in 1999, in addition to three previous score bids and a mention in that category this year. The only song from a documentary ever to win was from “An Inconvenient Truth” in 2006. The first “Mary Poppins” film won this prize in 1964 for “Chim Chim Cher-ee.” The last six Golden Globe winners have gone on to be nominated here, with four of them triumphing. “Shallow” won the Globe this year.

Who should win: I’ve listened to every one of these songs many, many times and remember the three that were performed during the actual films well. I’m not so into “All the Stars,” though I appreciate its value as an anthem for its film. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” was much more tolerable to me than the other song from that same film that made the finalist list, and it has a good message even if it’s not my favorite. “I’ll Fight” does a strong job representing it’s film themes. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” was part of what made the title segment so hilarious. Nothing compares to the incredible energy of “Swallow,” my clear choice and everyone else’s.
Who will win: Whenever there’s a clear frontrunner in this category, it tends to win. There’s no reason to predict anything but Shallow.