Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Willem Dafoe, Woody Harrelson, Richard Jenkins, Christopher Plummer, Sam Rockwell

My choices: Coming in February!

This year’s locks: Mahershala Ali, Richard E. Grant

Very likely: Adam Driver, Sam Elliott

Possible: Timothée Chalamet, Michael B. Jordan, Steven Yeun, Sam Rockwell

Unlikely: Nicholas Hoult, Russell Crowe

The rundown: This category seems to be pretty sewn-up, with just one popular favorite and one critical darling threatening to break into the mold. The SAG list is looking like it will translate directly to Oscar, and all five of the men on it also earned Critics’ Choice mentions. Mahershala Ali (Green Book), the Globe winner, and Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) are the safest. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) seems to be ahead of even other elements of his film, and, despite missing Globe and BAFTA bids, Sam Elliott (A Star is Born) should be in too. There’s not much reason to doubt Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) as a contender, other than the fact that he’d be the easiest to drop given that his film won’t show up anywhere else. The fifth Globe nominee, Sam Rockwell (Vice), feels like a much more logical pick there than at Oscar, and he’d only show up if Oscar voters really loved the movie, though BAFTA voters opted to honor his small role too. I’m pulling for Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite), but only the women from that film seem to have any traction. He would have needed to do better throughout awards season, but Russell Crowe (Boy Erased) could benefit from his complicated father role that softens him considerably since his era of three consecutive nominations almost two decades ago. The two likeliest to upset and break into the list come from completely different films. Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) is very hot right now, and starring in the film that could end up winning Best Picture means that he could get some votes, as he already has with some awards groups so far. Steven Yeun (Burning), known to American audiences for his role on “The Walking Dead,” is a dark horse for his completely different turn in potential South Korean Best Foreign Film nominee, which would be a cool mention but one that would take a lot of voters choosing him to make happen.

One possible crazy scenario: It’s hardly the movie most would term Oscar-friendly, but enough precursors have chosen Hugh Grant (Paddington 2) that his inclusion wouldn't be entirely shocking.

Forecasted winner: Unless Grant or Elliott surge, Ali seems set to collect a second Oscar in just three years.