Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition:
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) directs his twenty-third film, which earns him his second career bid in this category after contending here and for writing “Do the Right Thing” in 1989. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and for performances by stars John David Washington and Adam Driver.

Peter Farrelly (Green Book) directs his thirteenth film, which earns him his first nomination, along with a bid for the film’s screenplay. His film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and for performances by stars Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali. Farrelly co-directed previous Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical contender “There’s Something About Mary” from 1998.

Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) directs his eighth film, returning to this category after a win in 2013 for “Gravity.” He is also nominated for the film’s screenplay and for Best Foreign Film, a category in which he contended in 2001 for “Y Tu Mama Tambien.”

Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) makes his directorial debut, earning him his first bid in this category. He is also nominated for his performance in the film, adding to his two previous acting nominations for “American Hustle” and “Silver Linings Playbook.” His film contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama, star Lady Gaga, and its signature song.

Adam McKay (Vice) directs his seventh film, earning him his first bid in this category. He also contends for the film’s screenplay, his second nomination in that category after “The Big Short” in 2015, which was up for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical that year. His film is the nominations leader at the Globes this year, in the running for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and its three main stars’ performances.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar nine times out of the past fifteen years, with only Ben Affleck missing out on a nomination altogether. Five of the last fifteen years, the film that won in this category did not also win the top film prize. Foreign film directors triumphed two out of the last three times they were nominated in this category.
Who should win? I don’t think McKay belongs here, mostly because of how exaggerated and obnoxious his film often feels. Lee brings his signature style to his film, which didn’t wow me the way it impressed others. Cooper did a great job framing a film in which he starred, and I wouldn’t be disappointed to see him take the award. Farrelly’s movie flows well and he does a good job keeping it interesting. Cuaron, however, is the one who truly captures the art of storytelling with his black-and-white ode to an era.
Who will win? Given the foreign film statistics for this category and the love for his film, I think that Cuaron is safely ahead of Cooper.