Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

The competition:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book) plays renowned musician Don Shirley. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. He was previously nominated in this category in 2016 for “Moonlight,” a role that won him the Oscar.

Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) plays troubled addict Nic Sheff. He is the lone nominee from his film. He was nominated last year for his performance in “Call Me By Your Name.”

Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) plays Colorado Springs Detective Flip Zimmerman. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. The three-time Emmy nominee for “Girls” earns his first Globe nomination for this role.

Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) plays author Jack Hock. His costar Melissa McCarthy is also nominated. This is his first Globe nomination.

Sam Rockwell (Vice) plays former President George Bush. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. He won this award last year for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

Additional notes: All but Rockwell are nominated for individual SAG Awards, and Driver also contends as part of his ensemble. Only once in the past forty years has the winner of this category gone on not to be nominated for an Oscar (Aaron Taylor-Johnson in 2016), and the victor here also claimed the Oscar all but four times in the past fifteen years.
Who should win? Chalamet didn’t impress me as much as he did in last year’s big film, and Driver wasn’t the standout of his film by any measure. Rockwell was funny but had an extremely limited role, which both Grant and Ali, my pick, totally dominate their films alongside their top-billed costars.
Who will win? This isn’t sewn up, but it will either be Grant or Ali, in part to make up for him not winning this award on his road to Oscar two years ago.