Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama

The competition:
BlacKkKlansman is directed by Spike Lee, marking his twenty-third film. It also contends for Best Director and stars John David Washington and Adam Driver.

Black Panther is directed by Ryan Coogler, marking his third feature film. The first superhero movie nominated in this category also contends for Best Original Score and Best Original Song.

Bohemian Rhapsody is directed by Bryan Singer, marking his tenth film, though he was actually fired before its completion. Star Rami Malek represents the film’s only other nomination.

If Beale Street Could Talk is directed by Barry Jenkins, whose last film “Moonlight” won this award two years ago. This is his third film. It also contends for Best Screenplay and for supporting actress Regina King.

A Star is Born is the directorial debut of Bradley Cooper, who is nominated for his direction and his performance, along with Lady Gaga for her performance and the film’s signature song.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture only five times in the past fifteen years, and only three times in the entire history of the Globes, most recently in 1963, has the winner been snubbed altogether at the Oscars. The 1976 version of “A Star is Born” won the Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical award. As far as I can tell, a remake has never won this prize, though a sequel did in 2003 – “The Return of the King.”
What should win? I didn’t love “BlacKkKlansman,” and I liked “A Star is Born” even if I wasn’t as gung-ho about it as most. I think I liked “Bohemian Rhapsody” a whole lot more than most critics. I’d be happy with either “Black Panther” or “If Beale Street Could Talk,” both very different but exciting and worthwhile choices.
What will win? Barring a jaw-dropping victory for “Black Panther,” this is going to A Star is Born.