Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition:
Glenn Close (The Wife) plays Joan Castleman, the loyal spouse of a renowned author. She is the lone nominee for her film. She has a staggering twelve previous acting bids, winning twice for TV work in “Damages” and “The Lion in Winter.”

Lady Gaga (A Star is Born) plays Ally, a musical newcomer plucked from obscurity by an established musician. Gaga, who is also nominated for her film’s signature song, won a Globe in 2015 for her role in the TV series “American Horror Story.”

Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) plays Erin Bell, a cop facing her harrowing past. She is the lone nominee for her film. She also has twelve previous nominations, winning four times, most recently for the series “Big Little Lies.” Her film victories were for “The Hours,” “Moulin Rouge,” and “To Die For.”

Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) plays Lee Israel, a writer who begins forging literary letters. Her costar Richard E. Grant is also nominated. Though she has multiple Emmys wins, for “Saturday Night Live” and “Mike and Molly,” and an Oscar nomination for “Bridesmaids,” her only previous Globe bid was in 2015 for the film “Spy.”

Rosamund Pike (A Private War) plays war correspondent Marie Colvin. Her film is also nominated for Best Original Song. She was previously nominated in 2014 for “Gone Girl.”

Additional notes: Close, Gaga, and McCarthy are all nominated for individual SAG Awards, with Gaga contending additionally as part of her ensemble. The winner of this category has gone on to win the Oscar about half the time in the past fifteen years.
Who should win? I wasn’t wowed by Kidman or Pike in their films. McCarthy was good and funny in a more serious way than usual, and Close is definitely a solid choice. Gaga is pretty much what makes her film work though, and so she gets my vote.
Who will win? It could be Close, but Gaga should be far enough ahead.