SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 1/5, picking only “Crazy Rich Asians”
Who’s missing? The Favourite, Vice, Widows, If Beale Street Could Talk

I didn’t realize quite how badly I had done here. That said, there are some definite surprises. I guess I’ve been spoiled by the past few years where we got new contenders who hadn’t been honored in the top races at the Golden Globes, like “The Big Sick,” “Mudbound,” “Captain Fantastic,” “Hidden Figures,” “Beasts of No Nation,” “Straight Outta Compton,” and “Trumbo.” This year, all five were recognized there, though they’re not the ones you might think. “The Favourite” was highly expected to make the cut, and its omission is deeply troubling, and disappointing because it’s not just the three terrific women, and the same argument could be made for A Star is Born, which did manage to make the cut. The snub for “Vice” is problematic for that film though not damning, whereas this should be the end of the line, regrettably, for “Widows.” The absence of “If Beale Street Could Talk” is very disconcerting, signaling that support for the great film might not be as strong as it should be, though both “The Shape of Water” and “Call Me By Your Name” missed out here last year. Crazy Rich Asians getting in isn’t a big deal since it makes sense as a fun choice, and that doesn’t necessarily bolster its chances. Interestingly, it’s one of two films nominated without an individual cast representative, along with Black Panther, another good choice with lots of great players. I’m fine with the inclusion of BlacKkKlansman even if it wasn’t my favorite of the year. Rounding out the list is a less expected choice, Bohemian Rhapsody, that I’m behind since I liked it a lot more than most critics. It’s now a much stronger contender for the Best Picture Oscar given its placement here and at the Globes. The question is, like last year, will not all these films make the cut with the Oscars? On a less optimistic note, it’s worth reading Nathaniel’s deep dive into which ensemble players weren’t actually nominated over at The Film Experience.

Who will win? These are some competitive nominees – my guess is that Black Panther wins over the likelier frontrunner, “A Star is Born.”