Monday Oscar Odds

I had intended for this to be a weekly feature, but film festivals and other things have gotten in the way. Since my last edition on October 29th, I haven’t actually seen most of the films I was missing, aside from “Green Book,” which I reviewed earlier today and which is indeed terrific.

I’ll be offering Golden Globe predictions in all categories this week, and I discovered something very interesting in writing up each race this week. I often reference Wikipedia as a database for the nominees each year since its visual format is really easy to read, and I found something fascinating on the page for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. There were five nominees listed for 2018, pictured below, with all of the producers named as well. Not only that, but one of them – “The Favourite” – was listed as the winner, and it even suggested that both “The Favourite” and “Green Book” went on to be nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture. This is most mesmerizing since this couldn’t possibly be a leak because the ballots haven’t even been mailed out yet! I don’t know what to make of it other than that it’s a strange occurrence which tells me I’ve only seen two of these movies.

As far as the Oscars go, the most important announcement that’s come in the past few weeks were the nominations for the Film Independent Spirit Awards. I wish that “American Animals,” “Colette,” and “Thoroughbreds” had picked up more than just one nomination apiece in the editing and screenplay races since they’re so good, and I don’t imagine they’ll have any shot at the Oscars. Primarily, the Spirit nominations are bad news for Melissa McCarthy, who missed out both here and with the Gotham Awards despite costar Richard E. Grant getting in, and “BlacKkKlansman,” which only got recognized for supporting actor Adam Driver, who I hadn’t been predicting. “First Reformed” and “Eighth Grade” both performed well, so it’s possible they’ll break out from just the original screenplay category. I think that I’m actually not going to change anything in what I have below, just to add three categories in for now – Best Animated Feature, Best Documentary, and Best Foreign Film. More in the coming weeks, and stick around this week for Golden Globe predictions!

Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
Widows

Best Director
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Damien Chazelle (First Man)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

Best Actor
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Best Actress
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Daniel Kaluuya (Widows)

Best Supporting Actress
Claire Foy (First Man)
Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Widows

Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary
Of Fathers and Sons
On Her Shoulders
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Best Foreign Film
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Girl (Belgium)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)