Golden Globe Musings: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Lady Bird
Molly’s Game
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The Globes don’t have separate categories for original and adapted screenplays, which means that the buzziest films nominated in the top races often place here, along with a few surprising inclusions every couple of years. While A Star is Born and Roma may do very well elsewhere, it’s not guaranteed that they’ll score here. The Favourite, on the other hand, feels like a frontrunner, and BlacKkKlansman will probably show up too. Green Book is likely to place, and Vice and If Beale Street Could Talk might too. If voters like the film, Can You Ever Forgive Me? seems like a worthwhile choice here. Eighth Grade is a solid bet for an Oscar bid but will have a harder time cracking this category. I’d be excited to see Widows, which stands an outside chance if it goes over well in other categories.

Current predictions:
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk