Golden Globe Musings: Best Motion Picture – Drama

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

In the increasingly uncertain and numerically fluctuating Oscar Best Picture list, it’s good to have some barometer of the top five drama films each year. Last year, I missed predicting the winner, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” though fortunately that one didn’t go the distance and ended up losing the Oscar to “The Shape of Water.” This year, our frontrunner is indisputably A Star is Born, in part because “Roma” isn’t eligible due to its foreign-language status. First Man, BlacKkKlansman, and If Beale Street Could Talk are all likely to show up but not guaranteed. Watch out for Widows to crack the race, and, if independent precursors are any indication, First Reformed could also break through and show up here, or maybe something much more popular like Black Panther. It could also be Can You Ever Forgive Me? or Bohemian Rhapsody.

Current predictions:
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
Widows