Golden Globe Musings: Best Foreign Film

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
First They Killed My Father (Cambodia)
In the Fade (Germany)
Loveless (Russia)
The Square (Sweden)

I feel like I have a better handle on this race than usual, though there are always surprises here that don’t usually translate to the Oscar list. Of the eighty submissions to this category, the definitive frontrunner is Roma (Mexico), which, per Globe rules, isn’t actually eligible in the top category as an international picture. Next up should be Shoplifters (Japan), Capernaum (Lebanon), and Cold War (Poland), though they might miss out here before rebounding for the Oscar race. Happy as Lazzaro (Italy) isn’t in contention for the Oscar but will probably show up here, fending off competition from the likes of Burning (South Korea), Everybody Knows (Spain), Girl (Belgium), The Guilty (Denmark), and Never Look Away (Germany), as well as any of the other seventy or so possibilities.

Current predictions:
Cold War (Poland)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Happy as Lazzaro (Italy)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)