Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

The competition: Call Me By Your Name (James Ivory), The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber), Logan (Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green), Molly’s Game (Aaron Sorkin), Mudbound (Virgil Williams and Dee Rees)

Previous winners: Moonlight, The Big Short, The Imitation Game, 12 Years a Slave, Argo, The Descendants, The Social Network
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!

The facts: Ivory, who at 89 is the second-oldest Oscar nominee ever, has been nominated three times before as a director. Green was nominated in this category in 1998 for “Out of Sight.” Sorkin was nominated in this race in 2011 for “Moneyball” and won the year before for “The Social Network.” “Logan” is officially the first live-action superhero film nominated for screenwriting. Just one of these films – “Call Me By Your Name” – contends for Best Picture for the first time since 2006, when the lone Best Picture nominee, “The Departed,” won. “Call Me By Your Name” won the WGA Award, the Critics’ Choice Award, the BAFTA, and the Scripter.

Who should win: “Call Me By Your Name” is an impressive story with some very memorable scenes, and “Mudbound” works well as a narrative but doesn’t astound with its screenwriting. “Molly’s Game” is far from Sorkin’s best, and “Logan” represents an intriguing and creative adaptation of a franchise character into an R-rated format. “The Disaster Artist” eclipses them all with an engaging script that tells an unbelievable tale in a way that seems perfectly realistic despite its outrageousness and manages to be extremely entertaining.

Who will win: I can’t see a reason why Call Me By Your Name wouldn’t win.