Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 23rd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Allied, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie, La La Land

This year’s locks: Phantom Thread

Very likely: The Greatest Showman, Beauty and the Beast

Possible: The Post, The Shape of Water, Murder on the Orient Express, Blade Runner 2049, Wonder Woman, Dunkirk, Darkest Hour, Victoria and Abdul

Unlikely: Thor: Ragnarok, Kingsman: The Golden Circle

The rundown: Like with production design, the Costume Designers Guild splits its nominees into three categories – period, sci-fi/fantasy, and contemporary. This Oscar category is also the visual field that tends to deviate most from Best Picture nominees, including just one of them last year and zero back in 2009. Phantom Thread, which probably won’t place in that race, is the frontrunner here, with The Greatest Showman and Beauty and the Beast following closely behind. The Post, which didn’t score a CDG nod, feels like a good bet, while The Shape of Water is the least safe here. Wonder Woman would be a cool inclusion, but I think it will miss out along with fellow CDG nominees Murder on the Orient Express and Blade Runner 2049. Both Dunkirk and Darkest Hour could easily make the cut, as could Victoria and Abdul, which wasn’t cited by the CDG.

One possible crazy scenario: It’s one of the contemporary nominees at the CDG - I, Tonya - and might be recognized for costuming its signature skater in both competitive gear and very 90s garb.

Forecasted winner: I think Phantom Thread could win, but we’ll have to see what the other nominees are.