Oscar Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 23rd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Viola Davis, Naomie Harris, Nicole Kidman, Octavia Spencer, Michelle Williams

This year’s locks: Laurie Metcalf, Allison Janney

Very likely: Holly Hunter, Mary J. Blige

Possible: Octavia Spencer, Hong Chau, Tiffany Haddish

Unlikely: Melissa Leo, Kristin Scott Thomas, Catherine Keener

The rundown: This category has seven women competing fiercely for five slots. This was the exact Critics Choice lineup, with Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip) and Holly Hunter (The Big Sick) sitting out at the Golden Globes and Hunter subbing in for Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water) with SAG. The two sure things are Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) and Allison Janney (I, Tonya), and the only question is which one of them will win. Hunter should be safe even though Globe voters apparently hated her movie, and then there’s Mary J. Blige (Mudbound), whose film has had a lukewarm reception across awards bodies, but she seems to be safe too. There’s no support whatsoever for anything other than the performance from Hong Chau (Downsizing) in her movie, which I think makes her the most vulnerable. Spencer’s film is all but guaranteed to be the one with the most nominations, so I think she makes the cut as a result. Haddish is a wild card, so who knows. I can’t understand why Melissa Leo (Novitiate) isn’t in competition after early awards buzz, and for Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour) or Catherine Keener (Get Out) to show up, their films would have to show up in a much bigger way than anyone is expecting either of them to (with different expectations already set up favoring the latter).

One possible crazy scenario: Back when Jake Gyllenhaal was a possibility for “Stronger,” there was a slight chance that his Emmy-winning costar Tatiana Maslany (Stronger) could get some votes. Wouldn’t that be incredible?

Forecasted winner: Unless “I, Tonya” lands a bunch of nominations, I think Metcalf will still be the one to take it home.