Final Golden Globe Winner Predictions

The Golden Globes are tonight, and they have the potential to be really exciting. This is the first time since I’ve been watching that there’s no distinct frontrunner for Best Motion Picture – Drama, and not even two films up against each other that might take it. While I don’t think it will be the film that I’ve been predicting all along to win the Oscar for Best Picture – “Call Me By Your Name” – any of the other four could feasibly win. My choice would be “The Shape of Water,” which is one of my top films of the year, but I still think “The Post” is likelier. On the comedy side, “Lady Bird” is ahead but it could easily be “Get Out” or “The Disaster Artist,” or even “I, Tonya” or “The Greatest Showman.”

I did manage to catch up on the movies I needed to see in time for the show. I skipped “The Leisure Seeker” since Helen Mirren has 0% chance of winning – that seems like an eventual DVD or streaming experience a few years down the road. I’m missing four of the foreign films and three of the animated ones, but I’ll have to get to those closer to Oscar night. I don’t think Judi Dench is going to win for “Victoria and Abdul,” though she is given solid material and makes the most of it (I’m not her biggest fan, but I can admit that), and she’s a more seasoned actress compared to frontrunner Saiorse Ronan and her top competition Margot Robbie, and could win if votes are split between them. I saw the last three in a triple feature, and I’ll comment in the order I saw them. While Jessica Chastain is very good in “Molly’s Game,” I’d be very surprised if she won, and the same goes for Aaron Sorkin, whose script wasn’t as focused or strong as the films that he’s won for in the past. Hong Chau was easily the liveliest and most entertaining part of “Downsizing,” and I wouldn’t mind seeing her win at all though I think she’s in an extremely competitive field. It would be cool since she’s so unknown, and I think that she excels as the one who steals the film, unlike the other actresses in this category who, while good, have other noteworthy performances in their same films. And then there’s “Phantom Thread.” It’s certainly possible that Day-Lewis could win since his film is just as present as, and actually slight more than, “Darkest Hour,” but his performance isn’t nearly as showy as his previous wins, while Oldman’s is. And I didn’t care much for the music, though there’s a case to be made that it anchors the film in a big way (though the music of “Dunkirk” does more). Reviews of all four will be coming this week, but I don’t think any of them are significant threats.

I’d love to see “The Shape of Water” and “Lady Bird” clean up, while I’d be decidedly less excited about “The Post,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” and “Get Out.” But I’m sure we’ll have a few surprises! Check out my predictions below and leave your thoughts in the comments! Full analysis can be found by clicking on category headings. Head over to TVwithAbe.com for TV categories.

Best Motion Picture - Drama
The Post

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Lady Bird

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Christopher Plummer ()

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Best Animated Feature Film
Coco

Best Foreign Language Film
The Square

Best Director - Motion Picture
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Lady Bird

Best Original Score - Motion Picture
Dunkirk

Best Original Song - Motion Picture
“This Is Me” (The Greatest Showman)