Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Joel Edgerton (Loving)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

The surest thing in this race is Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), which would actually mark his first Globe nomination. Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger) seems like a pretty solid bet from a film earlier in the year even if he might not make it all the way to Oscar (though I hope he does). A nominee from last year, Andrew Garfield (Breathe), could enter the race, as could Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) for a film that’s sure to be very popular. The movie is supposed to be terrible, but last year’s nominee Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) shouldn’t be underestimated. Without knowing how good either film is, Tom Hanks (The Post) and Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) are still likely to get many votes. I’m not sure there are any other truly strong contenders, but Chadwick Boseman (Marshall), Christian Bale (Hostiles), Jeremy Renner (Wind River), John Boyega (Detroit), and Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool) could all earn some votes.

Current predictions:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
Tom Hanks (The Post)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)