Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Cinematography

The competition: Arrival (Bradford Young), La La Land (Linus Sandgren), Lion (Greig Fraser), Moonlight (James Laxton), Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)

Previous winners: The Revenant, Birdman, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo, Inception, Avatar, Slumdog Millionaire
My winner: To be announced soon!
The facts: Just one of these nominees has been here before, and that’s Prieto, who contended in 2005 for “Brokeback Mountain,” and serves as the only nominee for his film. I can’t find a single instance in the past sixty years where a film only nominated in this category has won. The other four are Best Picture nominees with plenty of nominations. Interestingly, the actual Best Picture winner hasn’t taken this award since 2008. These five films represented the lineup at the ASC Awards, where “Lion” prevailed.

Who should win: I don’t know why “Silence” needs to be here. The other four are great choices, and I think I might go with “Lion” or “Moonlight” though I’m also fond of “La La Land.”
Who will win: Is this where things split or does “La La Land” sweep it all? I think this could go to Lion but it could just as easily go to any of the rest.