Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

The competition: Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan), La La Land (Damien Chazelle), The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou), Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan), 20th Century Women (Mike Mills)

Previous winners: Spotlight, Birdman, Her, Django Unchained, Midnight in Paris, The King’s Speech, The Hurt Locker, Milk, Juno
My winner: To be announced soon!
The facts: Lonergan has been nominated twice before in this category, for “You Can Count on Me” and “Gangs of New York,” and is also recognized for directing his film. Chazelle, who was previously nominated for adapting the screenplay of “Whiplash,” also contends for Best Director. Lanthimos was previously nominated for Best Foreign Film for “Dogtooth.” “Hell or High Water,” “La La Land,” and “Manchester by the Sea” are all up for Best Picture, and this is the only nomination for both “The Lobster” and “20th Century Women.” Since the expansion of this category to include more than five films, all winners have been Best Picture nominees. Previously, “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” took home this award in 2004 despite not being nominated for Best Picture.

Who should win: I really liked “Manchester by the Sea” but these are all terrific nominees. Any of them would be deserving if they won.
Who will win: Though “Manchester by the Sea” just took home the BAFTA, I think that Globe champ La La Land is seen as so original and beloved that it’s going to win here too.