SAG Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Mahershala Ali’s father figure (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges’ dogged detective (Hell or High Water), Hugh Grant’s entertainer (Florence Foster Jenkins), Lucas Hedges’ opinionated nephew (Manchester in the Sea), Dev Patel’s transplanted student (Lion).

For your information: This is the fourth nomination for Bridges, who won in 2009 for “Crazy Heart.” This is the second nomination for Patel and the first for the other three. Ali and Hedges are also nominated as part of their film’s ensembles. Nine times since the inception of the SAG Awards, the winner of this award did not go on to win the Oscar. 2012 was the first and only time that the eventual Oscar winner wasn’t even nominated by SAG (Christoph Waltz), and that will only happen this year if Michael Shannon wins. Or, like last year, the winner of this award (Idris Elba), won’t even get nominated for an Oscar.

Who should win: These are all good choices. I’d vote for Hedges with Patel in second place.

Who will win: I think that Ali should have a clear path without a wild card like Taylor-Johnson in the mix.