SAG Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Casey Affleck’s antisocial uncle (Manchester by the Sea), Andrew Garfield’s conscientious objector (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling’s struggling pianist (La La Land), Viggo Mortensen’s eccentric patriarch (Captain Fantastic), and Denzel Washington’s traditional father (Fences)

For your information: This is the fourth nomination for Washington and the third for Gosling. This marks the second nomination for both Affleck and Mortensen, and the first for Garfield. Interestingly, all but Gosling are also nominated as part of their ensembles (his film doesn’t really have one). The winner of this award has gone on to win the Oscar all but three times since it was first given out in 1994, with 2001-2003 as the only outliers.

Who should win: I’m a big fan of Affleck, but Washington and Gosling were also terrific.

Who will win: I think Affleck takes this along with most other Best Actor prizes this awards season.