Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Amy, Cartel Land, The Look of Silence, What Happened Miss Simone, Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

This year’s contenders:13th, Cameraperson, Command and Control, The Eagle Huntress, Fire at Sea, Gleason, Hooligan Sparrow, I Am Not Your Negro, The Ivory Game, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, Tower, Weiner, The Witness, Zero Days

The rundown: I’ve done so well in all the other categories, but I must admit that I haven’t seen a single one of these contenders. Based on what I’ve heard, I’m counting on 13th and OJ: Made in America to lead the pack, though I can’t understand how a nearly eight-hour miniseries is eligible for this award (and I’ll have to debate how much to watch if it does get nominated). Next up is Weiner, and I’m expecting the less sensational docs Life, Animated and The Eagle Huntress to round out the list. There are a number of other solid possibilities, like Italian entry Fire at Sea, Alex GIbney’s Zero Days, Gleason, I Am Not Your Negro, Tower, or any of the other five finalists. I don’t expect to do all that well in this category, but I look forward to seeing the films that end up getting nominated.

One possible crazy scenario: The craziness here is always if a sure thing doesn’t make the cut, and this year I’d say that would be 13th, which would be a huge omission and cause plenty of controversy.

Forecasted winner: I’ll go with OJ: Made in America.