Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition: Taylor Sheridan (Hell or High Water), Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)

For your information: “Hell or High Water” is the only film in this category not nominated for Best Director, and the other four writers are double-nominated as directors. Only Lonergan has been nominated before, back in 2000 for “You Can Count on Me.” The only film not nominated for best motion picture is “Nocturnal Animals.” That’s not necessarily a dealbreaker since “Steve Jobs” won last year. A musical has not won this award since the 1950s.

Who should win? I really didn’t like “Nocturnal Animals” so that doesn’t get my vote. I think I’d give this award to “Hell or High Water” though there’s a great case to be made for all four of the other nominees.

Who will win? Last year bucked history with the first film in over thirty years to win without a corresponding best motion picture bid, but I don’t think that will happen this year. I think it will probably be Moonlight though it could really be any of them.