Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

The competition: Christian Bale’s brilliant numbers guy (The Big Short), Tom Hardy’s impatient trapper (The Revenant), Mark Ruffalo’s dedicated journalist (Spotlight), Mark Rylance’s quiet spy (Bridge of Spies), and Sylvester Stallone’s aging Rocky Balboa (Creed).

Previous winners: J.K. Simmons, Jared Leto, Christoph Waltz, Christopher Plummer, Christian Bale, Christoph Waltz, Heath Ledger, Javier Bardem
My winner: Walton Goggins
The facts: Bale won this award in 2010 for "The Fighter" and was nominated again in 2013 for "American Hustle," making this his first bid for a film not directed by David O. Russell. Ruffalo was nominated in 2010 for "The Kids Are All Right" and last year for "Foxcatcher." Stallone contended in 1976 for "Rocky." This is the first nomination for both Rylance and Hardy. All but Stallone's films are nominated for Best Picture. Stallone won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award but wasn't nominated for the BAFTA, where Rylance triumphed, or the SAG, which went to Idris Elba, who isn't even on this list.

Who should win: I'm not too happy with this list since SAG nominees Jacob Tremblay and Michael Shannon didn't make the cut. I would have preferred Michael Keaton over Ruffalo, but I guess a win for him would signify support for the film, which for some reason has not been universal. I'm a big fan of Hardy but don't know that he needed to be nominated for this role, though he was quite good. I wasn't wowed by Rylance like everyone was, and therefore I'm not rooting for him, though I wouldn't be too upset if he won. I'm also okay with the idea of Stallone since he impressed me much more than I expected with a fittingly invested performance in a strong film. The one nominee I really don't want to see win is Bale, since he didn't need to take a spot this year for an admittedly eccentric performance that was far from the best in his film. If I had to pick a winner from this list, it would probably be Hardy or Stallone.
Who will win: The standing ovation Stallone got at the Golden Globes indicates just how respected he is. Rylance might have similar support but his film wasn't nearly as respected, and he doesn't have the momentum that Stallone has. Hardy could win if his film swept, as could Bale, but both of those are unlikely. Ruffalo doesn't have a shot.