Oscar Predictions: Best Art Direction

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 14th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Interstellar, Into the Woods, Mr. Turner

This year’s locks: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant

Very likely: Carol, The Danish Girl

Possible: Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies, Trumbo, Sicario, The Martian

Unlikely: Joy, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Room

The rundown: Translating what these nominees will be from the Art Directors Guild list is tough since there are three separate categories there – contemporary, period, and fantasy – and just one here. It’s easy to see that Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant, both of which earned nominations in their respective genres, are frontrunners. A shocking snub from the ADG was Carol, which is likely to break through here, and should be joined by period nominee The Danish Girl. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Period nominees Bridge of Spies and Trumbo could contend, as could contemporary nominees Joy, Sicario, and The Martian. I wouldn’t bet on fantasy nominee Star Wars: The Force Awakens since only the original three “Star Wars” films were honored here (the first won in 1977). The other non-ADG-recognized film, which was probably wasn’t eligible, that might grab the fifth spot: Brooklyn.

One possible crazy scenario: An ADG nominee I wouldn’t think to take seriously – horror film Crimson Peak makes the cut.

Forecasted winner: This feels like a solid place to honor Mad Max: Fury Road.