Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

The competition: Paul Dano’s brilliant musician (Love and Mercy), Idris Elba’s fearless commander (Beasts of No Nation), Mark Rylance’s quiet spy (Bridge of Spies), Michael Shannon’s fearsome real estate developer (99 Homes), and Sylvester Stallone’s aging boxer (Creed).

For your information: Elba has been nominated four times in the past, winning once for “Luther.” Both he and Rylance, who is a first-time nominee this year, are also nominated for their TV miniseries work. Stallone was nominated in 1976 for acting in and writing “Rocky.” This is the first nomination for Dano and Shannon. Interestingly, none of these films are nominated for a Best Picture award.

Who should win? Shannon is far and away my choice, though I would not have classified him as supporting or ever expected him to get nominated.

Who will win? It’s not clear at this point, but Rylance seems to be the one who is being most widely praised, so I expect him to win unless Elba manages to or Stallone gets a nostalgia trophy.