Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition: Jennifer Lawrence’s struggling inventor (Joy), Melissa McCarthy’s awkward agent (Spy), Amy Schumer’s vulgar journalist (Trainwreck), Maggie Smith’s title character (The Lady in the Van), and Lily Tomlin’s temperamental matriarch (Grandma).

For your information: This is the twelfth career nomination for Smith, who won film trophies in 1978 and 1986 and a TV award in 2012 for “Downton Abbey.” Tomlin has been nominated five times previously and also contends this year for “Grace and Frankie.” This is Lawrence’s fourth nomination in five years. She has won twice - for “American Hustle” in 2013 and in this category in 2012 for “Silver Linings Playbook.” Both films were directed by David O. Russell, who also directed her in “Joy.” This is the first nomination for both McCarthy and Schumer, who, along with Lawrence, have their films nominated for Best Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical. Four actresses have won this award twice in a row, including Amy Adams the past two years.

Who should win? These are all fun choices, though McCarthy and Schumer’s performances aren’t quite at the same level. I think I would pick Lawrence over Tomlin and Smith.

Who will win? I would have said that Lawrence was far ahead just based on the nature of her performance, her having won twice, and the film, but the reception hasn’t been as positive as it should be, both for her chances and the fact that it’s great! I don’t know that any of the other actresses have enough momentum to win, so I’ll stick with her.