Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition: Cate Blanchett’s unhappy wife (Carol), Brie Larson’s loyal mother (Room), Rooney Mara’s impressionable salesgirl (Carol), Saoirse Ronan’s optimistic immigrant (Brooklyn), and Alicia Vikander’s supportive wife (The Danish Girl).

For your information: This is the ninth nomination for Blanchett, who can credit two of her three wins to this category for “Blue Jasmine” and “Elizabeth.” Mara and Ronan have each been nominated once before, and Vikander is also nominated in Best Supporting Actress this year, earning two nominations on her first try. This is the first nomination for Larson. All but Vikander’s film are nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. The last time two actresses contended for the same film – 1991 – neither won.

Who should win? These are all great performances, but I’d vote for Larson or Vikander above the rest.

Who will win? There’s no clear frontrunner just yet, and unless one of the “Carol” women pull ahead, I think Larson will be the winner.