SAG Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Last year’s nominees: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods), and Naomi Watts (St. Vincent).

The rundown: I don’t expect any of last year’s nominees to be back, though voters might go overboard for Meryl Streep (Suffragette) in a minor role. The frontrunner here is Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), who will earn her eighth nomination. Likely to join her are Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), who will compete in the lead race at the Golden Globes. I’m not confident that Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) will have her film seen in time to win over voters, and she may lose out to contenders from earlier in the year like Elizabeth Banks (Love and Mercy) and Helen Mirren (Trumbo). This could be a good place to honor Jane Fonda (Youth), and it will be a struggle for Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria) to make the cut, but she may well do it.

Current predictions: Banks, Fonda, Mara, Vikander, Winslet