Your Guide to the Oscars

Movies with Abe presents your guide to tonight's Oscars. Click on each category heading for detailed analysis of all nominees in every category. Below please find my final predictions for the winners.

Last year, I was thrilled to come closer than ever before to having seen every single one of the nominees, and this year I did even better, whittling down that statistic from ten to four, two of which are Best Original Song nominees so shouldn’t really count. I doubt very much that “Tangerines” will triumph in the Best Foreign Film race or that “The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies” will be the first film in its trilogy to take home an Oscar. With that out of the way, I think I’m in a good position to predict the winners, though I do have to be careful about rooting for some of the films I liked better – “Interstellar” – over others that I think are rewarding a director and his technical collaborators for previous better works – “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” Moore, Simmons, and Arquette have their races locked up, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Michael Keaton beat Eddie Redmayne, though I think history sides with the transformative performance by a younger nominee rather than a comeback turn by one who has never been recognized. It’s the first time since 2010 that we’ve have a real duel for Best Picture, and I’m camping out with “Birdman,” which with the Independent Spirit Award last night for Best Picture and conceded Best Director to its number one competition, “Boyhood.” Could we see a surprise upset? Yes, and while many think it would be “American Sniper,” I’d love for it to be “Selma,” since those who actually saw the film and didn’t just vote to nominate it in only two categories would be enthusiastically endorsing it. I think voters will be able to choose and that “Birdman” is far enough ahead, but I’m not positive. The one win, above anything else, that I’m hoping for is “Wild Tales” to take the Best Foreign Film trophy. I’d also be very happy if “The Salt of the Earth” bested “Citizenfour,” but that’s hardly as crucial.

Let’s hope, as always for a fun show! I’m currently on a train back to New York City from Maryland and seem to be undeterred thus far from the snow both areas got yesterday, so I look forward to being back in plenty of time to sit down for the start of the show.

I’ll also be live-tweeting, so follow @movieswithabe during the show and let me know how you’re enjoying it! Leave your comments on these final predictions below! Click on category headings for analysis and detailed predictions.

BEST PICTURE
Birdman

BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman)

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Julianna Moore (Still Alice)

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Imitation Game

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Unbroken
BEST ART DIRECTION
Interstellar

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Into the Woods

BEST FILM EDITING
American Sniper

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Theory of Everything

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Glory”

BEST SOUND
Interstellar

BEST SOUND EDITING
Interstellar

BEST MAKEUP
Foxcatcher

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Interstellar

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Ida

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Citizenfour

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The Dam Keeper

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Boogaloo and Graham

Predicted totals:
Interstellar – 4
Birdman – 3
The Theory of Everything - 2
American Sniper – 1
Boyhood - 1
Foxcatcher – 1
The Imitation Game – 1
Into the Woods – 1
Selma – 1
Still Alice – 1
Unbroken – 1
Whiplash – 1