Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Marion Cotillard’s desperate employee (Two Days, One Night), Felicity Jones’ loyal wife (The Theory of Everything), Julianne Moore’s Alzheimer’s-afflicted intellectual (Still Alice), Rosamund Pike’s missing wife (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon’s hardened hiker (Wild)

Previous winners: Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Lawrence, Meryl Streep, Natalie Portman, Sandra Bullock, Kate Winslet, Marion Cotillard
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Two previous winners are back this year for the first time since their victories to earn their second nominations - Cotillard and Witherspoon. This is the fifth nomination for Moore. Jones and Pike are new to the race. Only Jones' film is nominated for Best Picture. Witherspoon's costar Laura Dern is also nominated, but that's it for the rest of these nominees, who represent their films solo. Moore won the Globe and the SAG.

Who should win: These are all great choices. I’d personally pick Witherspoon or Jones.
Who will win: Throughout this whole awards season, Moore has the been the firm frontrunner. Jones surely won’t get it, Witherspoon did already and her film isn’t popular enough, and Pike’s film tanked in a major way when Oscar nominations were unveiled. Cotillard also already won, and her film didn’t receive support elsewhere. With that data, I don’t see anyone but Moore taking it.