Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Robert Duvall’s murder suspect (The Judge), Ethan Hawke’s frequent father (Boyhood), Edward Norton’s eccentric thespian (Birdman), Mark Ruffalo’s wrestling champion (Foxcatcher), and J.K. Simmons’ tyrannical teacher (Whiplash).

Previous winners: Jared Leto, Christoph Waltz, Christopher Plummer, Christian Bale, Christoph Waltz, Heath Ledger, Javier Bardem
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: This is the seventh nomination for veteran Duvall, who won way back in 1983. Norton is back for his third nomination, and Hawke and Ruffalo earn their second acting nods. Simmons, who won the Globe and the SAG, is the newcomer to the bunch. Hawke and Norton's films are the only ones nominated for Best Picture.

Who should win: Norton or Simmons
Who will win: Last year, the frontrunner was Leto, and this year it’s Simmons. This list is identical to the slate selected by Golden Globe and the SAG voters, so it’s not as if there’s anyone new to the race who could unseat him. Duvall has already won and Hawke or Norton haven’t been swept along with the buzz for either of their films. Ruffalo isn’t the actor who would win for his film. I think this is Simmons’ without any question.