Oscar Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Sally Hawkins, Jennifer Lawrence, Lupita Nyongo, Julia Roberts, June Squibb

This year’s locks: Patricia Arquette, Emma Stone, Keira Knightley

Very likely: Jessica Chastain

Possible: Meryl Streep, Naomi Watts, Laura Dern

Unlikely: Carrie Coon, Tilda Swinton

The rundown: I bet against Meryl Streep last year in the lead actress category when she had been nominated by both the Golden Globes and SAG, and this year the same this has happened and once again I’m predicting that Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) won’t make the cut. Recognizing that I’m probably wrong, I do think that her film won’t do too well with Oscar voters and that she might lose out as a result. We have our locks in this race - Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Emma Stone (Birdman), and Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) – whose films are all poised to do very well in a number of categories on Thursday morning. Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year), who film I wish was going to do better, missed out on a SAG bid but seems pretty set for an Oscar nod. Naomi Watts (St. Vincent) took her SAG spot, but I can’t imagine that she’ll translate that into an Oscar nomination. Laura Dern (Wild) hasn’t been recognized by enough groups and I don’t think her film will be entirely warmly received. Carrie Coon (Gone Girl) was always on people’s lists but I think she’d be peaking too late. Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer) would be an eclectic choice, particularly because Swinton was nominated and won once before, but for a far more normative role in “Michael Clayton.” I’m betting instead on Rene Russo (Nightcrawler), who scored with BAFTA and should benefit from strong feelings towards her dark and disturbing film.

One possible crazy scenario: We’ll hear Naomi Watts (Birdman) called for a different film than SAG selected, though it’s technically the better performance of the two.

Forecasted winner: I think it will be Arquette.