Oscar Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Barkhad Abdi, Bradley Cooper, Michael Fassbender, Jonah Hill, Jared Leto

This year’s locks: J.K. Simmons, Edward Norton, Mark Ruffalo, Ethan Hawke

Very likely: None

Possible: Riz Ahmed, Robert Duvall, Josh Brolin

Unlikely: Tom Wilkinson

The rundown: This is a somewhat strange year for this category since four contenders are sure to appear and the fifth also appears pretty set in stone. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) is set to earn his first Oscar nomination, Edward Norton (Birdman) his third, and Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) and Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) their second nods. Robert Duvall (The Judge), a six-time nominee last nominated in 1998 with a win in 1983, was selected as the fifth nominee by the Golden Globes and SAG. Steve Carell, who has contended everywhere in America in lead, replaced Duvall in BAFTA’s list, and Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice) was the sixth Critics Choice nominee. Tom Wilkinson (Selma) might slip in because his film was pretty well-received, but I’m betting on a different contender to take Duvall’s spot. Even if costar Jake Gyllenhaal doesn’t get nominated, I think that Riz Ahmed (Nightcrawler) will be able to be swept along with the buzz for his film and manage a nomination.

One possible crazy scenario: I think Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) placing here would constitute a pretty crazy and surprising scenario.

Forecasted winner: The frontrunner right now is Simmons.