Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Animated Feature

The competition: The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest and Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises

Previous winners: Brave, Rango, Toy Story 3, Up, Wall-E, Ratatouille, Happy Feet, Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, The Incredibles, Finding Nemo, Spirited Away, Shrek
My winner: Frozen
The facts: This category has existed since 2001. Pixar isn’t nominated this year, so forget all the statistics about them. Since the first year of this category, there has been a bona fide frontrunner, and the only time it didn’t win was in 2006, when “Cars” haters chose “Happy Feet” instead. Hayao Miyazaki, director of “The Wind Rises,” won in 2002 for “Spirited Away” and was nominated again in 2005 for “Howl’s Moving Castle.”

Who should win: “The Croods” and “Despicable Me 2” just shouldn’t be here. Both “Ernest and Celestine” and “The Wind Rises” are wonderful foreign-language stories that are equally compelling for kids and adults. Ultimately, “Frozen” is the best achievement as an overall film.
Who will win: This really needs to go to Frozen. A win for “Ernest and Celestine” or “The Wind Rises” is feasible if voters are tired of hearing too many different versions of its nominated song, but I think that the fact that they’re listening so often means that they really do love it. Also, neither of those two films is strong enough to overtake the other, and Miyazaki has already been rewarded.