Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The competition: Sally Hawkins’ chatty sister (Blue Jasmine), Jennifer Lawrence’s diva wife (American Hustle), Lupita Nyongo’s abused slave (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts’ anger-prone daughter (August: Osage County), and June Squibb’s sarcastic wife (Nebraska).

Previous winners: Anne Hathaway, Octavia Spencer, Melissa Leo, Mo’Nique, Penelope Cruz, Tilda Swinton
My winner: Léa Seydoux
The facts: Roberts won in 2000 and was nominated twice before that. Lawrence won last year and was nominated in 2010 as well. Both have only won lead trophies. The other three are all first-time nominees. Lawrence, Nyongo, and Squibb have their films nominated for Best Picture.

Who should win: Lawrence or Squibb
Who will win: It’s a dead heat between two of these actresses, but let’s start by discounting the other three. Hawkins plays second fiddle to Cate Blanchett and won’t win for this role, and Roberts is just one piece of a large ensemble with plenty of colorful players. Squibb would be a fun choice, but I doubt she’d be able to muster enough support for a win (though she’d be quite a great spoiler). Lawrence won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, while Nyongo won the SAG. I’d be tempted to say that Lawrence could represent her cast, but I think that Nyongo will be a ringing endorsement for a true breakout and for a film that I still think is very likely to win Best Picture.