Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 16th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Five Broken Cameras, The Gatekeepers, How to Survive a Plague, The Invisible War, Searching for Sugar Man

This year’s contenders: The Act of Killing, The Armstrong Lie, Blackfish, The Crash Reel, Cutie and the Boxer, Dirty Wars, First Cousin Once Removed, God Loves Uganda, Life According to Sam, Pussy Riot: A Punk Prayer, The Square, Stories We Tell, Tim’s Vermeer, Twenty Feet from Stardom, Which Way is the Front Line from Here?

The rundown: This category has been winnowed down to fifteen finalists already. This year, I’ve seen four of the finalists: Blackfish, The Square, Stories We Tell, and Dirty Wars. I’m predicting three to make the cut, for their spotlights on whales, Egypt, and family, respectively, while the war exposé should get shafted. Predicted to join them are The Act of Killing and Twenty Feet from Stardom, both of which will be on DVD before nominations are announced. The Armstrong Lie might bump one of them, as could Cutie and the Boxer or another choice from the rest of the slate. Chime in if you’ve seen any of the other films!

One possible crazy scenario: Sarah Polley’s Stories We Tell gets snubbed.

Forecasted winner: I’ll go with Stories We Tell.