Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Richard Gere (Arbitrage)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)

This is a very competitive category, with a slew of big-name actors vying for just five slots. The two sure things are Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) and Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips), both of whom will also have their films nominated. Right behind them are Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) and Robert Redford (All is Lost), whose performances should catapult them even if their films don’t follow. Beyond that, there are a few others, like Forest Whitaker (The Butler), and George Clooney (Gravity), who could be swept along with their films, which are likely to be nominated for the top award. The underdog in this race is young actor and breakout star Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station), who is likelier to pop up later on in the race with SAG or the Oscars. Update: Christian Bale will now contend in the comedy race for “American Hustle.”

Current predictions:
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Robert Redford (All is Lost)
Forest Whitaker (The Butler)