Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

The competition: Amour (Michael Haneke), Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino), Flight (John Gatins), Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola), Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

Previous winners: Midnight in Paris, The King’s Speech, The Hurt Locker, Milk, Juno, Little Miss Sunshine
My winner: Moonrise Kingdom
The facts: There are a few relevant statistics for this race. The last time Tarantino and Boal were nominated together, Boal won for “The Hurt Locker.” Tarantino did win, in 1994 for “Pulp Fiction.” A foreign film last won in 2002 and hadn’t won before that for almost forty years. “Amour,” “Django Unchained,” and “Zero Dark Thirty” are all nominated for Best Picture. A film nominated in this race has won this award every year since 2005.
Who should win: “Moonrise Kingdom,” but “Zero Dark Thirty” would be a great choice too
Who will win: It’s unlikely that “Zero Dark Thirty” will prove popular with enough voters, which means that Django Unchained may well have the leg up in this race.