Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Jessica Chastain’s determined CIA agent (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence’s eccentric dancer (Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva’s dying wife (Amour), Quvenzhané Wallis’ intrepid adventurer (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Naomi Watts’ traumatized natural disaster survivor (The Impossible)

Previous winners: Meryl Streep, Natalie Portman, Sandra Bullock, Kate Winslet, Marion Cotillard, Helen Mirren
My winner: Jennifer Lawrence
The facts: This category welcomes two new players who weren’t nominated for either a Golden Globe or a SAG Award, and they happen to be the oldest and youngest nominees ever in this category, respectively.
Who should win: Lawrence is my winner, but anyone but Watts will do!
Who will win: This is one competitive race. Lawrence seems to have a leg up on Chastain, whose film didn’t receive anywhere near as warm a welcome from Oscar voters at it should have. But then you add Riva, who won the BAFTA, into the mix, and she seems like the frontrunner. Wallis could win, but that would be unlikely, and I can’t imagine that Watts would take home her first Oscar for what’s far from her best performance. It could easily be Lawrence or Chastain, but I’ll go with Riva.