Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Bradley Cooper’s temperamental former substitute teacher (Silver Linings Playbook), Daniel Day-Lewis’ Abraham Lincoln (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman’s Jean Valjean (Les Miserables), Joaquin Phoenix’s easily manipulated lost soul (The Master), and Denzel Washington’s alcoholic pilot (Flight)

Previous winners: Jean Dujardin, Colin Firth, Jeff Bridges, Sean Penn, Daniel Day-Lewis, Forest Whitaker
My winner: John Hawkes
The facts: Day-Lewis would make history by being the first person to win this award three times. Washington would also earn his third Oscar if he won this year. Two-time nominee Phoenix has never won before, and both Cooper and Jackman are first-time nominees.
Who should win: I’m sad that my choice, Hawkes, got snubbed, and I’d give it instead to Washington.
Who will win: It would be nice to say that there was hope for some creativity in this race, but there isn’t. Locks are locks, and no is one is taking down Daniel Day-Lewis. Cooper and Jackman will see their films rewarded elsewhere, and though their films have some other nominations, Phoenix and Washington aren’t in the most popular films of the year. Don’t expect a surprise here.