SAG Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Alan Arkin’s fiery producer (Argo), Javier Bardem’s Bond villain, Robert De Niro’s sports-loving father (Silver Linings Playbook), Philip Seymour Hoffman’s cult leader (The Master), and Tommy Lee Jones’ idealistic politician (Lincoln).

For your information: The SAG histories of these actors aren’t as intense as their Oscar records. Bardem and Hoffman have both won before, once each. This is the third nomination for Hoffman and Jones, the second for Bardem and Arkin, and the first for De Niro. Arkin, De Niro, and Jones are all nominated along with their ensemble casts as well. The Golden Globe winner in the corresponding category, Christoph Waltz, isn’t nominated here.

Who should win: All fun choices – I’d go with Hoffman or Jones.

Who will win: In SAG history in this category, a performer without a Globe nod has only ever rallied to pull off a SAG win once, and that was Ian McKellen for “The Fellowship of the Ring.” Still, Golden Globe winner Waltz not being here suggests that maybe De Niro can win it, especially since this guild has never had the opportunity to acknowledge him.