Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition: Jack Black’s friendly homicidal mortician (Bernie), Bradley Cooper’s temperamental former substitute teacher (Silver Linings Playbook), Hugh Jackman’s Jean Valjean (Les Miserables), Ewan McGregor’s fisheries expert (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen), and Bill Murray’s Franklin Delano Roosevelt (Hyde Park on Hudson).

For your information: Four of these actors have been nominated before, almost exclusively in this category. Murray, the only winner, has three previous nominations and a win for “Lost in Translation.” Black was nominated before for “School of Rock,” Jackman for “Kate and Leopold,” and McGregor for “Moulin Rouge.” Cooper is a first-time nominee. “Les Miserables,” “Salmon Fishing in the Yemen,” and “Silver Linings Playbook” are all nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. In the past ten years, an actor from a musical has won this award five times.

Who should win? Black or Murray

Who will win? It’s either Cooper or Jackman, depending on whose film proves more popular with Globe voters. I’ll predict the latter.