SAG Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

For the second year in a row, the Screen Actors Guild announces its picks one day before Golden Globe nominations are revealed, which makes it considerably tougher to predict the nominees without that helpful handicap of knowing ten likely contenders beforehand. Without knowing all that much, here are my best guesses for SAG’s five inclusions in this category. Check back on Wednesday for detailed reactions by category.

Last year’s nominees:
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Viola Davis (The Help)
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

This category could play out a number of different ways. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) is ineligible. Two foreign actresses, Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) and Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone), and a handful of other contenders from films that may not actually turn out to be awards favorites, like Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) and Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina), will compete for five slots. Past nominee Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) is a good bet, and she may be joined by a nominee from last year, Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), if that film is popular with this particular guild. Maggie Smith (Quartet) might make the cut too. I’d expect a surprise nominee from out of nowhere to shake up this list.

Predicted nominees:
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)